Chart-pattern evidence: from success claims to complete records

Audit pattern success rates, measured targets, re-entry losses, zero-event samples and unresolved outcomes with original calculations and diagrams.

Course outline

1. 1

   Audit the denominator behind a chart-pattern success rate

   Separate pattern candidates, qualified entries, eventual target touches and profitable trades. Reconcile a complete hypothetical event ledger.

   7 min
2. 2

   Calculate a flag target from explicit reference points

   Separate absolute-price and percentage projections. Check the reference base, executable entry and stop before deriving reward relative to risk.

   6 min
3. 3

   Reconcile a stopped trade and re-entry as one complete episode

   Include earlier losses, both sides of fees and the remaining risk budget when evaluating a re-entry. A later winner does not erase earlier attempts.

   7 min
4. 4

   Zero observed failures do not mean zero risk

   Calculate what a sample without failures can establish under a simple model. Separate rare events, sample size and the assumptions behind a confidence bound.

   7 min
5. 5

   Keep unresolved chart-pattern outcomes in the evaluation

   Separate completed and still-open observations. Calculate transparent outcome bounds without pretending that unknown price paths are wins or losses.

   6 min

Open full-size diagram

1. Audit the denominator behind a chart-pattern success rate
2. Calculate a flag target from explicit reference points
3. Reconcile a stopped trade and re-entry as one complete episode
4. Zero observed failures do not mean zero risk
5. Keep unresolved chart-pattern outcomes in the evaluation

Educational material. Examples do not establish a profitable strategy. Trading costs, gaps and liquidation can produce losses beyond a planned stop.